For agencies navigating competing priorities and constrained budgets, the timing of identity modernization is a real and legitimate question. But it's worth understanding the full picture of what the current state costs, not just in budget terms, but in fraud exposure, manual processing overhead, resident experience, and the growing complexity of integrating legacy systems over time. These costs tend to be distributed across teams and programs in ways that make them easy to underestimate. Having a clear view of them helps leaders make more informed decisions about when and how to move forward.
The Hidden Cost That Doesn't Show Up in Your Budget
Government technology budgets are built around visible expenditures: licenses, headcount, and infrastructure contracts. What they rarely capture is the cost of systems continuing to operate as they always have.
Consider the identity verification layer that underlies benefits delivery, licensing, and resident services. If that layer still depends on manual document review, in-person proofing, or knowledge-based authentication, it's likely generating costs in categories that rarely appear as line items: adjudicator hours spent on identity exceptions, call center volume driven by account lockouts, duplicate enrollment by residents who can't recover access to existing accounts, and fraud losses absorbed quietly across programs.
The Government Accountability Office has repeatedly documented improper payments across federal benefit programs, with identity-related fraud accounting for a significant share - around 80%. State programs face parallel exposure. These costs aren't hypothetical. They're already being paid.
This framing matters for how agency leaders present the case internally. The question isn't whether your agency can afford to modernize identity infrastructure. It's whether the current system's ongoing costs are fully visible, and whether that changes the calculus.
Four Compounding Risks Worth Understanding
The costs associated with older identity infrastructure don't tend to stay flat. They grow across four dimensions, and understanding them can help leaders build a stronger internal case for action.
Fraud exposure grows as attack sophistication increases. Synthetic identity fraud and AI-assisted document forgery aren't emerging threats, they're current operational realities. According to Deloitte, AI-enabled fraud losses are projected to climb from $12.3 billion in 2023 to $40 billion by 2027 if detection capabilities don't improve. Legacy verification systems weren't designed to detect them, and the gap between attacker capability and system defenses tends to widen over time.
Technical debt narrows future options. Identity systems that weren't built around open standards (such as W3C Verifiable Credentials, ISO 18013-5 for mobile driver's licenses, NIST SP 800-63 for digital identity assurance) become increasingly difficult to integrate with federal systems, peer-state programs, and private-sector services. The longer integration is deferred, the more complex and costly it tends to become.
Resident trust erodes through friction. 46% of residents said they would be more likely to use digital government services if the technology were easier to use, pointing directly to friction as a barrier to program participation. Residents who encounter broken self-service flows, failed identity proofing, or repeated in-person requirements tend to disengage rather than file complaints. Over time, this can shape a baseline expectation that digital services are difficult to use.
Staff capacity doesn't scale to demand. Manual identity adjudication is labor-intensive. As state workforces face hiring constraints and service demand increases, the gap between capacity and volume widens. Automating identity verification is not about eliminating jobs, it's about freeing skilled staff from repetitive document review so they can focus on higher-judgment work.
These four dynamics tend to interact. Fraud losses drive audit pressure, which drives process rigidity, which increases staff burden, which reduces service quality, which affects resident trust. Recognizing the cycle is the first step toward breaking it.
Why Timing Matters: The Case for Acting on Digital Identity Now
A common approach in state government is the conditional pilot: wait until standards mature, until a peer state demonstrates results, until budget conditions improve. This framing treats delay as prudence, and in many policy areas, that instinct serves governments well. But in the case of digital identity, many of the conditions that would typically justify waiting have already been met.
Standards for digital identity are not early-stage. The W3C Verifiable Credentials specification has reached Recommendation status. ISO 18013-5 is in active deployment across multiple states for mobile driver's licenses. NIST SP 800-63-4 provides current guidance on digital identity assurance levels. The infrastructure layer for interoperable, privacy-preserving digital identity exists today. As we discuss in How Open Standards Strengthen State Digital Identity Governance, the foundational standards and deployment patterns are not speculative, they are operational.
Momentum is also building across the country. Arizona, Colorado, and Maryland are among the states that have moved forward on implementing verifiable digital credentials such as mobile driver's licenses (mDLs). Federal agencies are accepting digital credentials at an expanding set of touchpoints. This growing adoption creates a network effect, the value of participation increases as more states and agencies come online, and the cost of integration tends to rise the longer an organization waits.
What States Making Progress Have in Common
States moving forward with identity modernization tend to share a common operating posture: they've reframed identity from a program-specific concern to a shared infrastructure opportunity. Rather than asking whether a single agency needs better fraud controls, they're asking what the state's identity infrastructure should look like across programs, and building toward that.
This reframing has practical consequences. It opens the door to shared investment models that distribute cost across agencies. It creates interoperability by default rather than by exception. And it positions digital identity as a platform capability rather than a point solution.
Many of these states are also adopting a credential-native approach to modernization. Rather than retrofitting digital identity onto existing workflows, they're redesigning service delivery around verifiable digital credentials from the outset. As we explored in Credential Native Transformation: How Digital Identity Can Help Drive Your Modernization Strategy, this approach creates a more cohesive foundation that's difficult to achieve through incremental updates alone.
Finally, they're measuring outcomes that go beyond deployment milestones. Time-to-verify, fraud-detection rates, resident self-service completion, and staff hours per identity exception give a clearer picture of modernization value than go-live dates alone. How to Measure Digital Transformation Success with Verifiable Digital Credentials: KPIs Beyond 'Go Live' offers a practical framework for establishing these baselines before a modernization initiative begins, so progress is measurable rather than assumed.
A Framework for Evaluating Digital Identity Readiness
Every state operates on its own timeline, and there's no single right moment to begin modernizing identity infrastructure. But having a clear framework for evaluating readiness can help decision-makers move forward with confidence when the time is right.
Start with what you know. Review your current identity verification touchpoints, such as fraud loss, manual processing volume, resident drop-off rates, and integration complexity. Understanding what you're already spending creates a clear baseline and helps frame any future investment in context.
Assess your standards alignment. Identify which systems are built on open, interoperable standards and which rely on proprietary or siloed approaches. Systems built on open standards tend to offer more flexibility and lower long-term migration costs as the ecosystem evolves.
Identify a high-leverage starting point. Not every identity touchpoint carries the same level of risk or opportunity. Benefits enrollment, professional licensing, and resident account recovery often offer a strong combination of impact and return, making them natural candidates for early focus.
Build for platform, not project. Whatever the starting point, designing identity infrastructure to be reusable across programs creates lasting value. A shared verifiable digital credential verification layer, for example, serves not just one agency but the broader state ecosystem.
Moving Forward with Confidence
The case for digital identity modernization rests on a practical understanding of what current systems cost, the risks they carry, and the growing gap between how residents expect to interact with government and what states can deliver today. That gap tends to widen over time, and addressing it proactively gives state leaders the ability to shape the approach on their own terms and timeline.
If you're exploring what this could look like for your state, SpruceID can help. We work with government teams to assess readiness, align with open standards like W3C Verifiable Credentials and ISO 18013-5, and build digital identity infrastructure designed to scale. Get in touch to start the conversation.
Building digital services that scale take the right foundation.
About SpruceID: SpruceID builds digital trust infrastructure for government. We help states and cities modernize identity, security, and service delivery — from digital wallets and SSO to fraud prevention and workflow optimization. Our standards-based technology and public-sector expertise ensure every project advances a more secure, interoperable, and citizen-centric digital future.